TerraNova • EU CBAM

EU CBAM for Canadian Exporters

The EU priced the border on 1 January 2026 — and a US tariff wall pushed record Canadian tonnage straight at it. Four papers on where Canadian exports stand, what the machinery demands, who is converting low-carbon intensity into position, and how the carbon price already paid at home comes off the bill.

By Koorosh Behrang • Updated

4 Papers • The Canadian Exporter’s Guide
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Foundational • Paper 1

The Exposure Map

Which Canadian industries the border levy actually touches — the aluminium pivot, the steel squeeze, the dormant files, and the 2028 expansion that reaches through US supply chains.

By Koorosh Behrang • • 9 min read

Read the Exposure Map →

What You’ll Learn

▶ Aluminium: +276% to Europe in 2025

▶ Steel: quota wall vs carbon wall

▶ Potash out, nitrogen dormant

▶ Hydrogen: CBAM from the first cargo

▶ 2.5% → 100%: the 2026–2034 ramp

▶ 2028 downstream expansion

The Border in Three Numbers

The levy is live, the price is published, and the charged share ramps for eight more years.

€75.36

First CBAM certificate price — Q1 2026

+276%

Canadian aluminium to Europe, 2025 vs 2024

2.5% → 100%

Share of embedded emissions charged, 2026–2034

Sources: European Commission (April 2026) · UN COMTRADE / BNN Bloomberg (May 2026) · Regulation (EU) 2025/2083.

More in the Series

The machinery, the strategy, and the deduction — each in a focused paper.

Briefing • Compliance

What CBAM Asks of a Canadian Exporter

You never file the declaration — your customer does, from your data. The machinery and the deadlines.

What’s Covered

•  Authorized declarants and the 50-tonne line

•  Verified actuals vs defaults marked up to +30%

•  The compliance clock to 30 September 2027

•  Contract terms: warranties, indemnities, pass-through

By Koorosh Behrang • June 2026 • 9 min read

Read Article →
Briefing • Strategy

How Canadian Exporters Are Managing

Hydro aluminium, all-EAF steel, CCS cement — converting Canada’s intensity endowment into contracts.

What’s Covered

•  Algoma all-EAF; Dofasco’s slipped timeline

•  ELYSIS commercial cells and the green premium

•  ~2 vs ~16 tCO₂e/t: the aluminium gap

•  The five-move playbook, verification first

By Koorosh Behrang • June 2026 • 9 min read

Read Article →
New Rulemaking • Draft IR

Credit for the Carbon Price Paid in Canada

The May 2026 draft rules on deducting origin-country carbon prices — what counts, what gets netted out.

What’s Covered

•  Effective vs headline price under OBPS and TIER

•  Certified carbon price reports; defaults from 2027

•  Article 6 credits capped at 10%

•  C$95 frozen at home; what it means at the border

By Koorosh Behrang • June 2026 • 10 min read

Read Article →

Shipping covered goods to Europe — or supplying someone who does?

Climate Decode quantifies the exposure, builds the verified data file, and prepares the carbon-price deduction — before the CBAM factor makes the gap expensive.

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TerraNova & Canopy

TerraNova builds the installation’s emissions baseline to CBAM methodology, assembles the carbon-price evidence file, and returns a financed abatement plan that shrinks the border charge. Where emissions cannot yet be cut, Canopy covers residuals and removals — the reduce and the balance side of net zero, in one workflow.

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