Insights & Analysis

Turning Carbon Market Data Into Corporate Action

We decode carbon markets so corporates can act. Powered by TerraNova (compliance markets) and Canopy (voluntary markets & nature-based solutions) — our agentic AI platforms turn market data into actionable corporate decisions.

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Featured

New Series • Carbon Border

EU CBAM for Canadian Exporters: Four-Paper Series

The border levy went definitive on 1 January 2026 — and a US tariff wall pushed record Canadian tonnage straight at it. Exposure, machinery, strategy, and the deduction for carbon prices paid at home.

What's Inside

•  The exposure map — aluminium +276% to Europe in 2025

•  Compliance machinery — declarants, data, 30 Sep 2027

•  Algoma, ELYSIS & the green premium — intensity into position

•  Draft May 2026 rules — crediting the carbon price paid in Canada

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Policy Commentary • Canadian Carbon Pricing

Canada–Alberta MOU: Certainty Delivered, Ambition Deferred

A 14-year TIER price schedule, the first-ever TIER credit price floor, jointly funded carbon contracts for difference, and a federal benchmark that resets to Alberta’s trajectory under GGPPA Section 1.6.1.

What's Inside

•  14-year TIER price schedule with the first credit price floor

•  Jointly funded carbon contracts for difference

•  Federal benchmark reset under GGPPA Section 1.6.1

•  Implications for BC OBPS, WCI Quebec, Ontario EPS

Read the commentary →
New Series • India Compliance Markets

India CAFE: Norms, OEMs & the New Credit Market

Seven parts on India’s Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency norms — the CAFE-II baseline, the CAFE-III step-change from FY28, OEM-by-OEM cost exposure, and the 5-year credit market modelled in full.

What's Inside

•  The 105 to 78.9 g target curve, WLTP transition, super-credits

•  All 15 PV OEMs mapped: Maruti, Tata, Hyundai-Kia, Mahindra, MG-JSW

•  ₹8–15K Cr industry penalty exposure FY28–32, modelled per OEM

•  4-scenario credit-market model + TerraNova for CAFE walkthrough

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New White Paper • Free Gated Download

Pulp & Paper Decarbonization: Process Emissions, Carbon Markets & Capital Discipline

Six lever families, a reference 200 kADt/yr kraft mill, BECCS and on-site biogas case studies with layered MAC math, and the carbon-market stack that turns each project from below break-even to investable.

What's Inside

•  Six decarbonization lever families, fully characterised

•  A reference 200 kADt/yr kraft mill and its emissions hotspots

•  BECCS & on-site biogas case studies with layered MAC math

•  Carbon-market & tax-incentive tables, IEA pathway to 2050

Get the White Paper →
New Series • Industrial Decarbonization

Agriculture & Food Systems: Four-Paper Series

Close to a third of global emissions and far less decarbonization capital than power or heavy industry — where agrifood emissions sit, the standards that bind them, and the financed plans that move them.

What's Inside

•  The 16.5 Gt baseline and the eleven-subsector map

•  SBTi FLAG — the land target most agrifood firms now owe

•  CBAM & fertilizer — €0 to €208/t worked cost cases

•  Scope 3 supplier engagement — decarbonizing what you don’t own

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Powered by Two Platforms

Climate Decode's agentic AI platforms break down carbon markets into actionable corporate guidance — from regulation explainers and pricing outlooks to compliance strategies and decision frameworks.

TerraNova

Compliance Carbon Markets

Agentic AI Platform

EU ETS

EU Emissions Trading System

The world's largest carbon market in three parts — cap-and-trade mechanics, the four trading phases, and the 2026 market ahead of CBAM and the ETS2 launch.

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Canadian Carbon Pricing

Provincial & Federal Systems

TIER, the Canada-Alberta MOU, GGPPA, Ontario EPS, BC OBPS, federal OBPS, CBAM interactions, and the policy commentary that tracks them.

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India CCTS

Carbon Credit Trading Scheme

India's new compliance carbon market — scheme structure, obligated sectors, pricing outlook across scenarios, and compliance management strategies for covered entities.

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Canada CFR

Clean Fuel Regulations

How Canada's lifecycle fuel standard works, compliance strategies for obligated parties, credit generation through fleet electrification, RNG, and CCS projects.

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India CAFE

Fuel Efficiency & OEM Credits

India's Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency norms — the CAFE-III step-change from FY28, all 15 PV OEMs mapped, and the new OEM-to-OEM credit market modelled.

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Canopy

Voluntary & International Carbon Markets

Agentic AI Platform

VCM

Voluntary Carbon Markets, RECs & EACs

Carbon credits, RECs, EACs — credit quality, registry standards, corporate procurement strategies, and market integrity frameworks.

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CORSIA

Aviation Carbon Markets

ICAO's offsetting scheme — eligible credits, SAF pathways, and airline compliance obligations.

Coming Soon

Article 6

Paris Agreement Carbon Markets

ITMOs, corresponding adjustments, Article 6.2 bilateral agreements, and the 6.4 crediting mechanism — where sovereign and voluntary markets converge.

Coming Soon

Industrial Decarbonization

Sector Roadmaps, Removal Economics & Project Finance

New Series

Pulp & Paper

White Paper · Summary · SBTi Briefing

Six lever families, a reference kraft mill, BECCS & biogas case studies with layered MAC math, and SBTi FLAG target setting for mills.

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CDR & CCUS

Carbon Dioxide Removal

The decarbonization paradox, CCUS economics after the cheap wins, 45Q vs the CCUS ITC, and dynamic MACC-based investment cases.

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Agriculture & Food Systems

New Series · 4 Papers

A third of global emissions — the 16.5 Gt baseline, SBTi FLAG land targets, CBAM & fertilizer, and Scope 3 supplier engagement.

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Chemicals

Sector Roadmap

Steam crackers, ammonia, and process emissions — abatement levers, electrification pathways, and the carbon-market stack for chemicals.

Coming Soon

Nature & Land Use

Nature Series — Corporate Nature, Land & Biodiversity Reporting

5-Part Series

Corporate Nature Reporting

TNFD · LEAP · SBTi FLAG · IFC PS · EU Nature Stack

Five practitioner guides covering the corporate nature-reporting stack end-to-end — TNFD's 14 recommendations, the LEAP assessment method, SBTi FLAG targets, IFC Performance Standard 6 for project finance, and the EU's five-instrument nature regime.

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Why It Matters

•  620+ organisations committed to TNFD-aligned reporting

•  CSRD ESRS E4 nature disclosure now mandatory in the EU

•  ISSB nature exposure draft expected around CBD COP17

Latest Articles

In-depth analysis that translates market complexity into corporate action.

SBTi Corporate Net-Zero Standard V2.0 — the final standard decoded

VCM Series · June 2026

SBTi V2.0: The Final Standard, Decoded

Published 11 June 2026. Two categories, a rebuilt OER program, a 2035 removals mandate, and a 2027 runway — what changed from the draft and how to apply it.

Read Article →
Alberta CCS Protocol v2.1 — DAC, hubs and the TIER + CFR credit stack

Canadian Carbon Pricing · June 2026

Alberta’s CCS Protocol v2.1: DAC, Hubs & the Credit Stack

The DAC electricity fix, hub-ready reversal accounting, and the one-tonne-two-credits TIER + CFR stack — the draft protocol, decoded.

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Agriculture and Food Systems Decarbonization — where agrifood emissions sit

Agriculture Series · June 2026

Agriculture & Food Systems Decarbonization

Where the 16.5 Gt of agrifood emissions sit, why they are hard to abate, and how the sector reaches net zero — Paper 1 of the new series.

Read Article →

Fact Sheets & Resources

Concise reference guides for quick market overviews.

Canada CFR Fact Sheet

Clean Fuel Regulations overview — obligations, credit types, and compliance pathways

PDF ↓

CORSIA Fact Sheet

Aviation carbon markets — eligible credits, SAF pathways, and airline obligations

PDF ↓

India CCTS Primer

Scheme structure, obligated sectors, and compliance mechanisms

PDF ↓

India CCTS Market Outlook

Carbon credit pricing across 3 market scenarios and sectoral analysis

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Recent Events

Catch up on webinars and workshops from our market experts.

MAR

5

Webinar Recording • On-Demand

India CCTS: Market Outlook & Compliance Management

Carbon pricing outlook, sectoral analysis, and Climate Decode's compliance platform — with Abhishek Das, Koorosh Behrang & Elton Lawes.

Watch Recording →

About Climate Decode

Climate Decode uses market insights to power actionable corporate decision-making. Our two agentic AI platforms — TerraNova for compliance carbon markets (CCTS, CFR, Carbon Pricing) and Canopy for voluntary markets and nature-based solutions (CORSIA, VCM, CDR, NBS) — guide corporates through complexity and into action.

From emission monitoring and MRV to decarbonisation pathways and credit trading — two platforms, one mission: turning market data into corporate action.

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