Canadian Carbon Pricing Series
The federal–provincial architecture for industrial carbon pricing in Canada — TIER, GGPPA, BC OBPS, Ontario EPS, WCI Quebec, and the CFR — plus policy commentary on the bilateral agreements and benchmark resets that shape it.
By Koorosh Behrang • Updated
5 Articles • Active SeriesPolicy Commentary — Latest
CD-ON-EPS-PERF-2026
Ontario EPS Market Performance: What Three Compliance Years ShowObligations grew 56% to 4.83 Mt while credit creation grew 20%. The province’s EEU sales clear 83% of compliance, which makes the EEU charge — not scarcity — the price that runs the market. By Koorosh Behrang • • 8 min read Read the Analysis → |
What’s Inside ▶ The program in numbers — 219 facilities, 4.83 Mt obligation ▶ Creators and obligators — electricity 45%, cement 42% of EPUs ▶ EPU–EEU dynamics — retirements first exceeded creation ▶ The bank — 0.82 Mt, about a sixth of one year’s need ▶ The price — EPU at $70.08 against the $80 EEU charge |
Policy Commentary — Article 04
CD-CCP-REV-2026
Canadian Carbon Markets Since the 2025 Election: A Chronological ReviewFifteen months that removed the consumer fuel charge, opened exits from voluntary industrial coverage, reset the federal benchmark through bilateral agreements, and expanded the WCI market. By Koorosh Behrang • • 8 min read Read the Review → |
What’s Inside ▶ Which system applies where — the July 2026 map ▶ Full timeline — every milestone, Mar 2025 to Jul 2026 ▶ Opt-out amendments — federal OBPS s. 7.1 + Ontario EPS ▶ The Alberta and BC deals — $95 to $140, compensation ▶ WCI — California to 2045, Washington linkage for 2027 |
Policy Commentary — Article 03
CD-CCP-REG-2026
Evolving Carbon Pricing Regulations in Canada: Impact & What to WatchThe benchmark now runs to $140 by 2040, Alberta gets a credit floor, BC gets compensated, and Saskatchewan sits outside every operating system. A market-by-market read after the July 2026 package. By Koorosh Behrang • • 12 min read Read Commentary → |
What’s Inside ▶ The new national trajectory — $115 in 2030, $140 by 2040 ▶ Federal OBPS — MB, PEI, YT, NU + the unimplemented SK backstop ▶ TIER — the $60 floor convergence trade and Pathways stringency deal ▶ BC OBPS — first federally compensated benchmark downshift ▶ Ontario EPS — a ~$25/t ceiling cut in a closed market |
Policy Commentary — Article 02
CD-CCS-QP-2026-06
Alberta’s CCS Quantification Protocol v2.1: Mechanics, the CFR Credit Stack, and Natural Gas System ApplicabilityAlberta is consulting on the protocol that decides who gets paid to sequester CO₂. The draft tightens DAC economics, codifies hub accounting, and locks the carve-out that makes the TIER + CFR + ITC stack work. By Koorosh Behrang • • 12 min read Read Commentary → |
What’s Inside ▶ v2.0 vs v2.1 changelog — what changed and why ▶ New Section 4.3.3 P8 — DAC off-site low-CI electricity ▶ New Appendix E — multi-source hub reversal accounting ▶ TIER + CFR + ITC credit stack modeled at ~$398/t ▶ NG-sector applicability — what qualifies, what doesn’t |
Policy Commentary — Article 01
CD-CA-MOU-IA-2026
Canada–Alberta MOU Implementation Agreement: Certainty Delivered, Ambition DeferredA 14-year TIER price schedule, the first-ever credit price floor, and a jointly funded CfD backstop — and because the federal government agreed, the GGPPA benchmark resets to this trajectory. By Koorosh Behrang • • 10 min read Read Commentary → |
What’s Inside ▶ Locked TIER price — $95 to $140 by 2040 ▶ First credit price floor — $60 (2030) → $110 (2040) ▶ Joint CfDs — up to 75 Mt at $1.2 B liability ▶ CCUS ITC extended to 2035 + 20% CFR upstream floor ▶ Section 1.6.1 — GGPPA benchmark resets to Alberta’s path |
Markets Covered
Federal & Provincial Carbon Pricing Systems
The provincial industrial carbon markets that operate under the federal GGPPA benchmark.
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Series Lead
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Koorosh BehrangFounder, Climate Decode 10+ years across WCI, Ontario EPS, Alberta TIER, BC OBPS, Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulations, the EU ETS and Shipping ETS, and FuelEU Maritime — integrating carbon pricing exposure, credit strategy, and regulatory trajectory into capital allocation and long-term compliance planning. Speak to Koorosh → |