TerraNova • Clean Fuel Markets

Clean Fuels

Eight programmes across North America and Europe price the same physical barrel — each in its own unit, on its own trajectory, at its own clearing price. Market profiles and published analysis, in one place.

Market profiles • Regulatory mechanics • Published analysis

The Markets

How each programme is built, what it counts, and what the regulator publishes.

North America

Canada CFR

Federal lifecycle CI standard. Credits in tonnes, three compliance categories, and a compliance fund capped at 10% of the obligation.

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United States

US Renewable Fuel Standard

The largest biofuel mandate in the world. Counted in RINs, with four nested obligations.

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North America

British Columbia LCFS

North America's longest-running LCFS, and the only place a litre earns provincially and federally at once.

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United States

California LCFS

The deepest LCFS market. Amended regulation in force since July 2025, with benchmarks to 2045.

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United States

Oregon Clean Fuels Program

A tight market with no in-state production, and a live rulemaking on the trajectory.

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United States

Washington Clean Fuel Standard

The newest West Coast standard, stepping sharply through the middle of the decade.

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European Union

EU RED III

A directive, not a market. The tradable instruments are national.

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European Union

FuelEU Maritime

Directly applicable, well-to-wake, with pooling as the only transfer route.

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Compare all clean fuel markets →

Published Analysis

Research from the Climate Decode team across the clean fuel markets.

Explainer • Aug 2026

The Renewable Fuel Standard, Explained

Why the headline biodiesel mandate is not the number that sets the market — RINs, D-codes, the nesting rule and what happens at the border.

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Canada CFR Series

Reading the CFR Credit Market

Why roughly 60% of CFR credit volume moves at zero price, and why the published weighted average is the wrong revenue anchor.

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Canada CFR Series

CFR Credit Price Passed the Compliance Fund

ECCC's first monthly dataset — the average tripled, and the quarterly maximum crossed the fund price in Q3 2025.

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Canada CFR Series

BC LCFS: Credit Tripled, Bank Stayed Long

A decade of BC prices. Coverage of the obligation, not the balance of the bank, is what priced the market.

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The full Canada CFR series →

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