The deepest low carbon fuel market in the world, and the one most other programmes are measured against. The amended regulation stepped the benchmark sharply in mid-2025 and set a path running to 2045, alongside sustainability provisions that change which feedstocks can count.
The 2024 amendments were approved in June 2025 and took effect 1 July 2025. Fuel supplied in the first half of 2025 was assessed against the earlier benchmark, so any 2025 comparison needs to say which half-year it refers to.
CARB sets an annual carbon intensity benchmark for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel substitutes. Fuels below the benchmark generate credits; fuels above it generate deficits. Regulated parties balance the two each year, and credits bank without expiry.
Three elements determine how the California market clears: the benchmark trajectory, the bank of credits carried between years, and the Credit Clearance Market that operates when the market is short.
Six features of the amended regulation that materially change how the market behaves — and which are the ones most often missed.
The amended regulation took effect on 1 July 2025, so a single calendar year carried two different gasoline benchmarks. Any comparison across 2025 has to state which half-year it refers to, or it will mislead.
The amendments cap the share of a party's biomass-based diesel that may come from soy, canola and sunflower oil. This is a constraint on which barrels can count, not just on their carbon intensity.
A credit banked today is still a credit in a decade. That is what allows the market to run long for extended periods, and why the relationship between the bank and the price is the central question in the programme.
From 2027 CARB may bring the benchmark schedule forward when the bank is large relative to deficits. The trajectory is no longer purely fixed — it responds to market length.
The maximum price applies to credit transfers within the clearance market. It does not cap what a party pays for physical low-CI fuel, which is a distinction with real consequences for how compliance cost is estimated.
Crop-based pathways will require third-party certification. Fuel that cannot demonstrate eligible biomass is assigned a default carbon intensity, which in practice removes its credit value.
Where you stand under Canada Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR), what it costs, and which levers reduce the bill — mapped by the team.
Six ways we support producers, importers and obligated parties in the California market.
Tier 1 and Tier 2 pathway applications, CI calculation and the evidence CARB expects — including under the new sustainability provisions.
Working through the crop cap and the certification requirements now approaching, and what they mean for feedstock contracting.
Translating the benchmark into an actual deficit position, and modelling how it is covered across generation, purchase and the bank.
How a Californian barrel interacts with the RFS, Canada's CFR and the other West Coast standards. Which combination pays best is specific to the barrel.
Amendments, acceleration announcements, clearance market determinations and pathway policy — tracked for what they do to your position.
Quarterly reporting, annual fuel pathway reports and third-party verification, so filings land on time and survive review.
Published analysis from Climate Decode on California and the markets it competes with for the same barrel.
The federal programme that sits underneath California, counted in RINs rather than tonnes — and why the two do not net against each other.
The Canadian federal standard, and how its credit definition differs from a Californian one.
Seven programmes pricing the same barrel, each with its own unit, trajectory and clearing price.
Benchmarks are taken from the amended regulation in force since 1 July 2025. CARB publishes credit transfer prices monthly; note that the published monthly average and the quarterly maximum can differ substantially, because a maximum can rest on a very small number of credits.
The 2024 amendments were approved in June 2025 and took effect on 1 July 2025. Fuel supplied in the first half of 2025 was assessed against the earlier benchmark and fuel from the third quarter onward against the amended one, so a single calendar year carried two different gasoline benchmarks.
For liquid fuels it is generally the producer or importer — the first entity that brings the fuel into California. CARB's regulation sets out the reporting entity for each fuel type, and only regulated parties may hold and transfer credits.
No. Credits are denominated in metric tonnes of CO2e and bank indefinitely. That is why the size of the credit bank, rather than any single year's generation, is the number the market watches most closely.
It is a mid-year mechanism for parties that cannot cover their deficits, operating at a maximum price indexed annually to inflation. It bounds the price of a credit transfer within that market. It does not cap what a party pays for physical low-carbon fuel, and it is only triggered when parties are actually short.
The amended regulation limits the share of a party's biomass-based diesel that may be derived from soy, canola and sunflower oil. It constrains which feedstocks can count toward compliance, independently of their carbon intensity, and it tightens the case for waste and residue feedstocks.
They are separate programmes with separate units — tonnes of CO2e in California, RINs federally — and a credit in one cannot satisfy an obligation in the other. A single barrel can generate under both, which is why positioning a barrel is a question about the whole stack rather than any one programme.
See how Climate Decode delivers end-to-end CFR support — from eligibility assessment and CI modelling through credit commercialisation and stackability analysis.