TerraNova • Agriculture & Food Systems

Agriculture & Food Systems Decarbonization

Close to a third of global emissions, and far less decarbonization capital than power or heavy industry. Four papers on where agrifood emissions sit, the standards that bind them, and the financed plans that move them.

By Climate Decode • Updated

4 Papers • Net Zero for Agrifood
Speak to an Expert →Explore the Series
Start HereSector SnapshotThe PapersTerraNova

Start Here

Foundational • Paper 1

The Sector Overview

Where the emissions sit, why they are hard to abate, and how the sector reaches net zero — the 16.5 Gt baseline, the eleven-subsector map, and the three gases that explain the levers.

By Climate Decode • • 12 min read

Read the Overview →

What You'll Learn

▶ The 16.5 Gt agrifood baseline (FAO 2023)

▶ Eleven subsectors across four stages

▶ Three gases, three abatement logics

▶ Scale: 43% of habitable land farmed

▶ Five decarbonization lever families

▶ Capital discipline & sequencing

The Sector in Three Numbers

Agrifood is biological, upstream-heavy, and still growing — which is exactly why it can be measured and financed.

16.5 Gt

Agrifood CO₂e, 2023 — ~32% of global

~22%

Of net global GHG is the land sector (FLAG)

11.4×

Value-chain emissions vs direct operations

Sources: FAO FAOSTAT Analytical Brief 115 (2025) · IPCC AR6 WG III · SBTi (2025).

More in the Series

The standard for land, the border charge on fertilizer, and the Scope 3 problem — each in a focused paper.

White Paper • SBTi

Science-Based Targets for Land

How the SBTi FLAG standard works, and what it asks of the agrifood industry.

What's Covered

•  Who must set a FLAG target — sectors and the 20% threshold

•  Sector pathway vs eleven commodity pathways, 26 regions

•  95%/67% coverage, removals rules, no-deforestation by 2030

By Climate Decode • June 2026 • 11 min read

Read Article →
Briefing • EU CBAM

CBAM and Fertilizer

What the EU carbon border levy covers, and what it costs a tonne of fertilizer.

What's Covered

•  Covered goods from ammonia (CN 2814) to NPK (CN 3105)

•  Benchmarks vs default values — why verified data pays

•  Worked cases: €0 to €208/t as free allocation ends by 2034

By Climate Decode • June 2026 • 9 min read

Read Article →
White Paper • Scope 3

Decarbonizing What You Don’t Own

Supplier engagement, Scope 3, and upstream emissions in food, pulp and fertilizer.

What's Covered

•  Value-chain emissions average 11.4× direct operations

•  The SBTi supplier-engagement target, step by step

•  CBAM precursor roll-up — supplier engagement, priced and audited

By Climate Decode • June 2026 • 7 min read

Read Article →

Want this analysis run for your facilities or supply chain?

Contact Us →
Powered By

TerraNova & Canopy

TerraNova builds a site’s emissions baseline, finds the hotspots, screens the levers against local carbon prices and incentives, and returns a financed, ranked plan. Where emissions cannot be cut, Canopy covers residuals and removals — the reduce and the balance side of net zero, in one workflow.

Explore TerraNova →Explore Canopy →