WCI & Cap-and-Invest read from the facility records up.
The linked California–Québec market and Washington’s programme, analysed from primary regulator data: allowance budgets, covered emissions by obligation type, offsets, reserve accounts and the forward balance to 2035.
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Articles in this series
01 · California · 25 Aug 2026
California’s covered emissions fell 26%. Its carbon price sat at the floor for eight of the first nine years.
Cap-and-invest was reauthorised to 2045 last September. We decomposed the 2013–2024 reduction across 11,204 facility-years of CARB records. Electricity and fuel delivered 87% of it, both under mandates that bind independently of the allowance price — and in industry, where the price stands closest to alone, 62% of the fall was plants closing.
Read the analysis →02 · California · 27 Aug 2026
California repealed its electric vehicle mandate. Its fuel market absorbs the consequence.
The zero-emission vehicle rule is gone; the LCFS is not. Every electric vehicle that now does not get sold is a block of LCFS credits that never gets generated and a block of deficits that never stops being generated — and the bank is what absorbs the difference until it cannot.
Read the analysis →Coming in this series
Washington’s linkage decision and what it does to compliance costs on both sides of the border; the allowance bank and when the linked market runs short; and how the 118.3 Mt Modernization and Decarbonization Incentive changes industrial supply from 2028.