The EU’s new 260 Mt credit facility (Article 9b) is a demand signal — but the Paris Article 6 market it will buy from is only just switching on. Here’s where that market stands in 2026, why corresponding adjustments are the integrity backbone, and the supply scramble already underway.
The mechanism the EU wants to buy from is only just switching on. In February 2026, the UN issued the first-ever credits under the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM, the Article 6.4 mechanism) — a clean-cooking programme in Myanmar, just 58,428 tonnes, and about 40% fewer credits than the same activity would have earned under the old Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), reflecting a higher bar.
The market is in pipeline mode, not delivery mode: bilateral deals are signing and projects are developing, but actual issuance is tiny and concentrated. At COP30 in Belém (November 2025), parties confirmed the CDM will close by end-2026, with more than 1,000 legacy projects racing to migrate into Article 6.4.
These two are often muddled, so it’s worth being precise. Article 6.2 is the framework — the cooperative-approaches rulebook governing how countries authorise units, apply corresponding adjustments, and report internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs). It doesn’t issue anything; it is the accounting and authorisation layer. Article 6.4 is a mechanism — the centralised, UN-supervised crediting scheme (PACM, the CDM’s successor) that actually issues units against approved methodologies.
The two interlock. A 6.4 unit a host country authorises (with a corresponding adjustment) becomes an ITMO under 6.2 accounting; a 6.4 unit left unauthorised stays a Mitigation Contribution Unit (MCU) — usable for contribution claims, but not countable toward another country’s target. And 6.2 supply need not come from 6.4 at all: a voluntary-market credit can become an ITMO if the host authorises it and applies a corresponding adjustment under a bilateral deal — the route Switzerland (via KliK) has used with Thailand, and the basis of the May 2026 Sweden–Switzerland bilateral. So the real dividing line is not 6.2-versus-6.4 — it is authorised (ITMO) versus unauthorised (MCU).
The concept that makes Article 6 credible is the corresponding adjustment. When a host country authorises a credit for export, it must add that tonne back to its own emissions account (and the buyer subtracts it), so the same reduction can’t be counted twice — once by the host toward its NDC and again by the buyer. A unit carrying an ‘Article 6 authorised’ label is one the host has agreed to adjust for.
That authorisation is what turns any unit — whether issued by the 6.4 mechanism or a voluntary standard — into an ITMO. It is also exactly what the EU means by ‘high-integrity’: the Article 9b facility will be buying ITMOs — authorised, corresponding-adjusted units — not unauthorised MCUs. An authorised ITMO can then be counted toward a buyer country’s NDC, used for CORSIA, or surrendered under a domestic compliance scheme such as Singapore’s carbon tax (up to 5% of taxable emissions). COP30 tightened Article 6.2 reporting after expert reviews flagged inconsistencies in early submissions from Ghana, Guyana, Switzerland and others — a reminder that the accounting, not just the credit, is where integrity lives.
We help developers, host-country programmes and buyers structure Article 6 authorisations, corresponding adjustments and offtake ahead of the demand wave.
The EU ETS review’s Article 9b sets up a facility to buy up to 260 Mt of high-quality, high-integrity international credits over 2036–2040, drawn from the credits the European Climate Law allows — and the draft says the rules under Paris Article 6.4 ‘may be complemented.’ In effect, the EU is positioning itself as a sovereign buyer of ITMOs — authorised, corresponding-adjusted units — joining CORSIA, buyer-country NDCs and compliance schemes like Singapore’s carbon tax that already absorb them. Its 31 January 2033 integrity report is, in market terms, a single question: has a credible, high-integrity Article 6 supply actually materialised? If not, the ETS tightens domestically instead.
Here is the tension. Demand for authorised, corresponding-adjusted units is arriving faster than supply — and the EU is far from the only sovereign buyer. CORSIA (mandatory phase from 2027) is chasing 225–250 million eligible units by spring 2027. Singapore’s carbon tax (S$45/t from 2026) already lets companies surrender eligible ITMOs against up to 5% of taxable emissions, and buyer countries such as Switzerland, Sweden and Japan are acquiring ITMOs toward their own NDCs. Add corporate voluntary buyers converging on the same high-integrity bar, then the EU’s up-to-260 Mt facility from 2036 — all drawing on the same pool.
Yet only a limited number of host countries are so far willing to authorise transfers — because every authorised tonne is one they can no longer count toward their own NDC. Authorised supply, not project supply, is the binding constraint.
For developers, the value is now in the authorisation, not just the tonne: methodologies and host countries that can deliver corresponding adjustments will command the premium. For host countries, it is a sovereignty-and-revenue calculus — how much NDC headroom to sell versus keep. For buyers, sovereign and corporate demand are converging on the same scarce, CA-backed supply, which points to firmer prices for genuinely authorised units and a widening gap to unauthorised ones. The EU’s facility doesn’t create this market — it raises the stakes on getting integrity right.
The take
Article 6 is real but embryonic: one small PACM issuance, a handful of bilateral deals, and a CDM sunset, all in the same year. Into that, three demand streams — CORSIA from 2027, corporate buyers now, and the EU’s facility from 2036 — are converging on the same scarce resource: authorised, corresponding-adjusted units. The EU’s 2033 gate is really a bet that host countries will authorise at scale. For anyone building supply, the message is unambiguous — secure the authorisation and the corresponding adjustment, because that, not the raw reduction, is what these buyers are paying for.
Primary sources for the figures and rules cited above.
From authorisation and corresponding adjustments to methodology selection and offtake structuring, Climate Decode helps developers, hosts and buyers get Article 6-ready.
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