Every passenger-vehicle OEM in India mapped against FY26 units, BEV mix, curb weight, CAFE-II margin, and 5-year strategic role — from Maruti's 1.82M-unit volume exposure to Tata's structural credit surplus.
Five columns define each OEM's CAFE position. Units FY26 is FY25-26 PV sales from VAHAN aggregates. BEV % is the share of those units that are battery-electric. CAFE-II margin (g) is the OEM's fleet average minus its individual mass-curve target — a positive number means the OEM is comfortably under target, a negative number means it is in deficit. Curb kg is the sales-weighted average curb weight, which drives the individual target via the mass curve. 5-yr role is our classification of whether the OEM will likely be a credit-market net buyer, net seller, balanced, or penalty-leaning under base-case CAFE-III assumptions.
A note on the numbers
These figures are illustrative, derived from public sales data, VAHAN aggregates, and ARAI-published per-model CO2 values. Actual CAFE positions depend on the per-variant sales mix within each model, which only the OEMs themselves see in full. TerraNova for CAFE (Part 7) is built to capture this granularity at the variant level.
Sorted by FY26 volume. The first column gives the OEM, then units, then BEV mix, then CAFE-II margin (positive = surplus), then average curb weight, then our 5-year role classification.
| OEM | Units FY26 | BEV % | CAFE-II margin (g) | Curb kg | 5-yr role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maruti Suzuki | 1,820,000 | 1.8% | +3.2 | 1,000 | Net buyer |
| Hyundai Motor India | 614,000 | 3.6% | −2.1 | 1,250 | Major buyer |
| Tata Motors | 550,000 | 11.6% | +11.4 | 1,300 | Major seller |
| Mahindra & Mahindra | 480,000 | 8.4% | +5.8 | 1,700 | Net buyer (improving) |
| Kia India | 285,000 | 2.2% | −4.8 | 1,400 | Major buyer |
| Toyota Kirloskar | 282,000 | 0.4% | +12.4 | 1,500 | Balanced (SHEV-anchored) |
| Honda Cars India | 88,000 | 0.0% | −9.5 | 1,200 | Penalty-leaning |
| Skoda-VW India | 96,000 | 0.5% | −12.3 | 1,500 | Major buyer (pooling lobby) |
| Renault-Nissan | 67,000 | 0.0% | −3.5 | 1,150 | Net buyer |
| MG Motor (JSW-MG) | 60,000 | 31.0% | +7.8 | 1,450 | Major seller (per-unit) |
| Mercedes-Benz India | 19,000 | 9.0% | −18.5 | 2,000 | Net buyer (improving) |
| BMW India | 14,000 | 14.0% | −15.2 | 1,900 | Net buyer |
| Audi India | 7,000 | 6.0% | ~−10 | 1,900 | Net buyer |
| Volvo Cars India | 3,000 | 55% | ~+10 | 1,900 | Net seller |
| BYD India | 5,000 | 62% | ~+50 | 1,900 | Major seller |
Want this scatter built for your OEM's exact lineup?
Run it in TerraNova →Four OEMs dominate the supply side of the CAFE-III credit market under base-case assumptions: Tata, MG-JSW, BYD, and Volvo. Tata is in a league of its own on absolute volume.
Tata sits at 11.6% BEV mix in FY26 across Nexon EV, Punch EV, Tiago EV, Tigor EV, and an expanding portfolio (Sierra EV in FY28, Avinya 1 in FY29, Curvv EV, Harrier EV). At its public guidance of 30% BEV by FY30, the super-credit math on its 550-600K-unit base produces around 60 million g-units of cumulative surplus over the FY28-FY32 block. At the BEE floor of ₹2,500/g-unit, that is roughly ₹15,000 Cr of nominal credit value. In the base case, ~80% of it gets banked rather than realised because supply outstrips demand — this is the ‘scrip nobody wants' problem (Part 6).
JSW Group's 2024 partnership accelerated MG's BEV ramp from a niche play (ZS EV, Comet EV) into a 50%+ BEV mix target by FY27. At 31% in FY26, MG is already among the highest-mix mass-market OEMs in India. Per-unit credit generation is high; absolute volumes (~60K-100K units/yr) keep the cumulative surplus around ₹2,250 Cr at floor pricing.
Both are essentially pure-EV plays at the India end of their portfolios. BYD's Atto 3, Seal, and Sealion 7 generate large per-unit credits but low absolute volumes (~5,000 units in FY26). Volvo's EX30, EX40, and XC40 Recharge fleet, alongside its all-EV-by-2030 commitment, puts it on the supply side, but at ~3,000 units the absolute contribution is small.
Most of the volume on the demand side comes from large makers with thin BEV mixes today and high ICE/SHEV legacy positions. Maruti is the single largest net buyer by absolute exposure simply because of its 1.82M-unit base.
Maruti's CAFE-II margin of +3.2 g looks healthy until the WLTP transition adds 18% to its ICE readings. The headline shift from a 113 g target on MIDC to an effective ~88 g target on WLTP — while average certified CO2 moves from ~110 g to ~130 g WLTP — puts Maruti in a likely 1.5-3 g/km deficit before any plan. At 1.82M units, every 1 g of deficit is ~₹455 Cr in Tier-1 penalty or ~₹273 Cr at the BEE ceiling. The SHEV strategy (Grand Vitara, Invicto, Hyryder-cousin) helps materially via the 2.0× multiplier — Maruti's planned eVitara FY26, eWagonR FY27, eSwift/eDzire later are the BEV side of the same hedge.
Hyundai (614K units) and Kia (285K units) together represent ~900K units of net-buyer exposure. Hyundai's Creta EV launches FY26, Carens EV in FY27, with Inster imported as a niche play. Kia's EV6 stays niche; Carens EV planned. The Hyundai-Kia parent has a deep global BEV portfolio but localisation is the bottleneck.
Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Skoda-VW collectively represent ~135K units but the highest per-unit CO2 readings in the market. Mercedes at −18.5 g margin and Skoda-VW at −12.3 g are structurally short under CAFE-III. Their lobbying push is for pooling provisions (VW Group netting Audi + Skoda + VW) and for relief on the mass-curve. Without pooling, all four are net buyers at ceiling-adjacent prices.
A few OEMs sit in a structurally awkward place: too large to ignore, too small to invest in a domestic BEV platform, with a model strategy that does not match the multiplier stack. Honda is the canonical example.
Honda Cars India runs an e:HEV-only strategy through 2027 with no BEV in the India lineup. The 2.0× SHEV multiplier helps but does not close a 9.5 g gap on 88,000 units. Honda is likely to pay penalty rather than buy enough credits to fill the gap, unless e:N1/e:N2 imports arrive faster than currently guided. The exposure is bounded (~₹600 Cr over five years) but real.
Public BEV-ramp guidance varies sharply by OEM. Below is what each maker has said in investor calls, FY26 materials, or partnership announcements. These are guidance figures, not regulatory commitments.
| OEM | BEV target | Key launches |
|---|---|---|
| Tata Motors | 30% BEV by FY30 | Sierra EV FY28, Avinya 1 FY29, Curvv EV, Harrier EV |
| Maruti Suzuki | 15-20% BEV + 15-20% SHEV by 2030 | eVitara FY26, eWagonR FY27, eSwift/eDzire later |
| Hyundai Motor India | Multi-EV by FY28+ | Creta EV FY26, Carens EV FY27, Inster import |
| Mahindra | 30% BEV by FY30 | BE 6, XEV 9e launched; Sierra EV planned (INGLO platform) |
| MG-JSW | 50%+ BEV by FY27 | Windsor, Comet, ZS EV; JSW partnership accelerating ramp |
| Toyota Kirloskar | SHEV-heavy bridge | Hycross (~60% SHEV), Hyryder, Camry, bZ4X import possible |
| Honda Cars India | e:HEV-only through 2027 | BEV launches FY29+ via e:N1/e:N2 imports speculative |
| Mercedes-Benz | ~38% BEV by FY32 | EQB, EQE, EQS scaling; localised assembly considered |
| BMW India | ~42% BEV by FY32 | iX, i4, i5, i7 import scaling |
| BYD India | Near-pure BEV | Atto 3, Seal, Sealion 7; scaling slowly through pricing constraints |
| Volvo Cars India | All-EV by 2030 | EX30, EX40, XC40 Recharge |
For OEM Strategy Teams
Public BEV ramp guidance is what each OEM has said publicly. What it would take to actually hit those numbers is a different conversation.
Talk to our team →By FY32 the OEM mix on the supply side will look unrecognisable from FY26. Tata's structural lead narrows as Maruti, Hyundai-Kia, and Mahindra add BEV volume. MG-JSW could surpass MG's current per-unit lead in absolute terms if the JSW partnership delivers on the 50%+ BEV target. Volvo and BYD likely move from major-per-unit-sellers to net contributors if import duties soften. The premium European importers depend almost entirely on whether pooling becomes legal.
The asymmetry to watch
Even by FY32, Maruti's sheer volume keeps it as the single largest net-buyer exposure in the market — a 1.5-3 g/km deficit at 1.8-1.9M units is structurally larger than any other OEM's position. The shape of the credit market is dominated by what Maruti chooses to do.
Part 4 covers the five open issues that will determine how the credit market actually clears — super-credit policy stability, mass-curve fairness, WLTP cycle data, pooling provisions, and the enforcement question.
Part 2 — CAFE-III Mechanics · Part 5 — Per-OEM Cost Exposure · Part 6 — The Credit Market Modelled
Primary regulatory sources and verified analysis cited above.
From per-OEM cost exposure to the 5-year credit-market view, Climate Decode helps Indian passenger-vehicle OEMs sequence the CAFE-III response with finance-grade clarity.