Every passenger-vehicle OEM in India mapped against FY26 units, BEV mix, curb weight, and 5-year strategic role — from Maruti's 1.87M-unit volume exposure to Tata's structural credit surplus.
Four data columns and a classification define each OEM's CAFE position. Units FY26 is FY25-26 PV retail from VAHAN/FADA aggregates. BEV % is the share of FY26 units that are battery-electric (FY26 dispatch data). Curb kg is the sales-weighted average curb weight, which drives the individual target via the mass curve. 5-yr role is our classification of whether the OEM will likely be a credit-market net buyer, net seller, balanced, or penalty-leaning under base-case CAFE-III assumptions.
A note on the numbers
These figures are illustrative, derived from public sales data, VAHAN aggregates, and ARAI-published per-model CO2 values. Actual CAFE positions depend on the per-variant sales mix within each model, which only the OEMs themselves see in full. TerraNova for CAFE (Part 7) is built to capture this granularity at the variant level.
⚠ Public data + Climate Decode classification
Volumes are FY26 (Apr 2025–Mar 2026) VAHAN/FADA retail aggregates; BEV mixes use FY26 dispatch data (AutoPunditz). The 5-year role classification is Climate Decode's view of where each OEM likely sits in the CAFE 2027 credit market given its public BEV / SHEV guidance — not a calculation of any single OEM's filed CAFE position. The actual filed positions are known only to BEE and the OEMs themselves. Roles assume the September 2025 published draft (SHEV 2.0×); the April 2026 circulated draft's reported SHEV cut to 1.6× (Business Standard) would weaken the Toyota / Maruti / Honda hedge positions if it survives to notification.
Sorted by FY26 volume. Columns: OEM, FY26 units, BEV % of those units, average curb weight (which drives the OEM's mass-curve-adjusted Standard), and our directional 5-year role classification under base-case CAFE 2027 assumptions.
| OEM | Units FY26 | BEV % | Curb kg | 5-yr role — directional |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maruti Suzuki | ~1,870,000 | ~0.2% | ~1,000 | Net buyer — volume-driven, SHEV-mitigated |
| Mahindra & Mahindra | ~630,000 | ~8.7% | ~1,700 | Net buyer (improving with INGLO ramp) |
| Tata Motors | ~614,000 | ~14% | ~1,300 | Major seller — largest nominal surplus |
| Hyundai Motor India | ~578,000 | ~1.0% | ~1,250 | Major buyer — depends on Creta EV ramp |
| Toyota Kirloskar | ~335,000 | ~0% | ~1,500 | Balanced — SHEV-anchored at 2.0× |
| Kia India | ~279,000 | ~1.6% | ~1,400 | Major buyer |
| Skoda-VW India | ~110,000 | ~0% | ~1,500 | Major buyer — pooling candidate |
| MG Motor (JSW-MG) | ~66,000 | ~86% | ~1,450 | Major seller (per-unit) |
| Renault-Nissan | ~62,000 | ~0.0% | ~1,150 | Net buyer |
| Honda Cars India | ~61,000 | ~0.0% | ~1,200 | Penalty-leaning — e:HEV-only strategy |
| Mercedes-Benz India | ~18,000 | ~9.0% | ~2,000 | Net buyer — pooling candidate |
| BMW India | ~17,000 | ~14.0% | ~1,900 | Net buyer — pooling candidate |
| Audi India | ~7,000 | ~6.0% | ~1,900 | Net buyer — pooling candidate |
| BYD India | ~5,400 | ~100% | ~1,900 | Major seller (per-unit) |
| Volvo Cars India | ~3,000 | ~55% | ~1,900 | Net seller (per-unit) |
Want this scatter built for your OEM's exact lineup?
Run it in TerraNova →Four OEMs dominate the supply side of the CAFE-III credit market under base-case assumptions: Tata, MG-JSW, BYD, and Volvo. Tata is in a league of its own on absolute volume.
Tata sits at ~14% BEV mix in FY26 (85,405 BEVs across Nexon EV, Punch EV, Tiago EV, Tigor EV, Curvv EV and Harrier EV), with the pipeline expanding (Sierra EV, Avinya). At its public guidance of 30% BEV by FY30, the super-credit math on its ~610K-unit base produces the industry's largest cumulative surplus over the FY28-FY32 block — nominally a multi-thousand-crore position at the BEE floor on our model. In the base case, most of it gets banked rather than realised because supply outstrips demand — this is the ‘scrip nobody wants' problem (Part 6).
JSW Group's 2024 partnership turned MG from a niche EV play (ZS EV, Comet EV) into India's EV-mix outlier: ~86% of its FY26 volume was battery-electric (62,591 of 72,925 dispatches; FADA retail ~66K), led by the Windsor — India's best-selling EV of FY2026 at 46,720 units — sailing past the original 50%-by-FY27 target. Per-unit credit generation is the highest of any mass-market OEM; absolute volume keeps the cumulative surplus an order of magnitude below Tata's.
Both are essentially pure-EV plays at the India end of their portfolios. BYD's Atto 3, Seal, and Sealion 7 generate large per-unit credits but low absolute volumes (~5,000 units in FY26). Volvo's EX30, EX40, and XC40 Recharge fleet, alongside its 90–100%-electrified-by-2030 ambition (the all-EV-by-2030 pledge was dropped in September 2024), puts it on the supply side, but at ~3,000 units the absolute contribution is small.
Most of the volume on the demand side comes from large makers with thin BEV mixes today and high ICE/SHEV legacy positions. Maruti is the single largest net buyer by absolute exposure simply because of its 1.87M-unit base.
Maruti's CAFE-II margin looks healthy on the MIDC basis. The CAFE 2027 step-down is what bites: the FY28 standard tightens ~22% against the CAFE-II baseline on the same MIDC cycle, and a ~0.2% FY26 BEV mix (the eVitara launched only in February 2026) leaves the fleet carrying that step almost entirely on ICE and SHEV efficiency. If and when MoRTH triggers WLTP for CAFE and MoP issues the conversion factor, trade-press estimates suggest measured ICE CO2 readings rise ~18% on average (derived from the EU's NEDC→WLTP shift — not a regulatory parameter), with targets re-based separately. On our base case Maruti opens CAFE 2027 in deficit before any plan — and at ~1.87M units, each gramme of deficit creates the largest absolute credit demand in the market. The SHEV strategy (Grand Vitara, Invicto) helps materially via the 2.0× multiplier — the eVitara, eWagonR (FY27) and eSwift/eDzire later are the BEV side of the same hedge.
Hyundai (~578K units) and Kia (~279K units) together represent ~860K units of net-buyer exposure. Hyundai's Creta EV (launched January 2025) did ~5.6K units in FY26; Kia's Carens Clavis EV (launched 2025) did ~4.5K. The Hyundai-Kia parent has a deep global BEV portfolio but localisation is the bottleneck — both ran ~1–2% BEV mixes in FY26.
Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Skoda-VW collectively represent ~150K units but the highest per-unit CO2 readings in the market. On our model, Mercedes and Skoda-VW run the deepest directional deficits of the group under CAFE 2027 (specific margins are platform outputs, not published here). Their lobbying push is for pooling provisions (VW Group netting Audi + Skoda + VW) and for relief on the mass-curve. Without pooling, all four are net buyers at ceiling-adjacent prices.
A few OEMs sit in a structurally awkward place: too large to ignore, too small to invest in a domestic BEV platform, with a model strategy that does not match the multiplier stack. Honda is the canonical example.
Honda Cars India runs an e:HEV-only strategy through 2027 with no BEV in the India lineup. The 2.0× SHEV multiplier helps but does not close the gap on its ~61,000-unit FY26 base. Honda is likely to pay penalty rather than buy enough credits to fill the gap, unless e:N1/e:N2 imports arrive faster than currently guided. The exposure is bounded by Honda's small volume, but it is real.
Public BEV-ramp guidance varies sharply by OEM. Below is what each maker has said in investor calls, FY26 materials, or partnership announcements. These are guidance figures, not regulatory commitments.
| OEM | BEV target | Key launches |
|---|---|---|
| Tata Motors | 30% BEV by FY30 | Sierra EV FY28, Avinya 1 FY29, Curvv EV, Harrier EV |
| Maruti Suzuki | 15-20% BEV + 15-20% SHEV by 2030 | eVitara (launched Feb 2026), eWagonR FY27, eSwift/eDzire later |
| Hyundai Motor India | Multi-EV by FY28+ | Creta EV (Jan 2025), Carens Clavis EV (2025), Inster import |
| Mahindra | 30% BEV by FY30 | BE 6, XEV 9e launched; Sierra EV planned (INGLO platform) |
| MG-JSW | Already ~86% BEV in FY26 — 50% target surpassed | Windsor (India’s #1 EV, FY26), Comet, ZS EV |
| Toyota Kirloskar | SHEV-heavy bridge | Hycross (~60% SHEV), Hyryder, Camry, bZ4X import possible |
| Honda Cars India | e:HEV-only through 2027 | BEV launches FY29+ via e:N1/e:N2 imports speculative |
| Mercedes-Benz | ~38% BEV by FY32 | EQB, EQE, EQS scaling; localised assembly considered |
| BMW India | ~42% BEV by FY32 | iX, i4, i5, i7 import scaling |
| BYD India | Near-pure BEV | Atto 3, Seal, Sealion 7; scaling slowly through pricing constraints |
| Volvo Cars India | 90–100% electrified by 2030 (all-EV pledge dropped Sept 2024) | EX30, EX40, XC40 Recharge |
For OEM Strategy Teams
Public BEV ramp guidance is what each OEM has said publicly. What it would take to actually hit those numbers is a different conversation.
Talk to our team →By FY32 the OEM mix on the supply side will look unrecognisable from FY26. Tata's structural lead narrows as Maruti, Hyundai-Kia, and Mahindra add BEV volume. MG-JSW's per-unit lead is already locked in at ~86% mix; the open question is whether absolute volumes scale beyond the current ~66K a year. Volvo and BYD likely move from major-per-unit-sellers to net contributors if import duties soften. The premium European importers depend almost entirely on whether pooling becomes legal.
The asymmetry to watch
Even by FY32, Maruti's sheer volume keeps it as the single largest net-buyer exposure in the market — even a modest per-gramme deficit at ~1.9M units is structurally larger than any other OEM's position. The shape of the credit market is dominated by what Maruti chooses to do.
Part 4 covers the five open issues that will determine how the credit market actually clears — super-credit policy stability, mass-curve fairness, WLTP cycle data, pooling provisions, and the enforcement question.
Part 2 — CAFE-III Mechanics · Part 5 — Per-OEM Cost Exposure · Part 6 — The Credit Market Modelled
Primary regulatory sources and verified analysis cited above.
From per-OEM cost exposure to the 5-year credit-market view, Climate Decode helps Indian passenger-vehicle OEMs sequence the CAFE-III response with finance-grade clarity.