B.C. OBPS cash payments reach about $3.6 billion by 2035

From 2026, a B.C. operation can settle at most 30% of its obligation with compliance units. The rest is paid in cash at the compliance price.

That cap, not the price of units, is what determines how much money reaches the Province.

Climate Decode B.C. OBPS Market Outlook 2026; B.C. Carbon Registry, 25 to 27 September 2026. Nominal dollars.

From 2026, each operation can settle up to 30% of its own obligation with compliance units. Because units trade below the compliance price and remain plentiful, operations that use the market are assumed to use their full allowance, while some smaller operations continue to pay entirely in cash.

Across the province, units settle about 28% of the obligation in our outlook and cash covers the remaining 72%.

For the nine-month 2024 compliance period, operations paid about $122 million in cash, equal to 1.525 Mt at $80 per tonne. The 2025 payment is due by 30 November 2026 under a 40% usage limit and a $95 compliance price, and we estimate cash payments of about $210 million.

The Province forecasts $253 million of OBPS revenue for fiscal 2026/27. The figures are not directly comparable, and part of the difference reflects the obligations of operations that settle entirely in cash, which the registry does not disclose.

Cash payments increase as the provincial obligation grows and the compliance price rises. Tighter limits and the entry of LNG terminals lift the volume owed, while the price applied to the cash portion also increases.

In our model, operations pay about $320 million for 2030 and $483 million for 2035. Cumulative payments reach $1.54 billion over 2025–2030, $3.57 billion over 2025–2035 and $6.21 billion over 2025–2040.

The 2024 figure is the actual payment for a nine-month compliance period; 2025 is an estimate. Scenario ranges are cumulative and appear in Table 1.

Source: Climate Decode B.C. OBPS Market Outlook 2026. Nominal dollars; federal benchmark price path in all scenarios.

Three assumptions move the total by billions. We run the price path, the LNG benchmark and the tightening rate as separate scenarios.

Operations can use units for at most 30% of what they owe. The rest must be paid in cash at the compliance price, whatever units cost. Today there are far more units for sale than operations are allowed to use, so each operation that buys units uses its full 30% and pays the remainder in cash.

A cheaper or more expensive unit changes what operations pay to the companies selling units. It does not change what they pay to the Province. Provincial cash revenue is set by three things: how much operations owe, the share they must pay in cash, and the compliance price.

This holds as long as units remain plentiful. If units ran short, operations could not fill their 30% allowance and would pay more in cash.

•The compliance price path. B.C. law still sets the compliance price at $170 per tonne in 2030, compared with $115 under the federal benchmark used in our Base case. Retaining the provincial schedule would add about $1.9 billion of cash payments over 2025–2040.

•The LNG benchmark. LNG terminals begin to owe from 2028 in our outlook, although no LNG benchmark has yet been published. Removing LNG from the obligation would reduce cumulative cash payments by about $1.4 billion over 2025–2040.

•Faster tightening. The CleanBC Independent Review recommended faster tightening of emissions limits. One additional percentage point of tightening each year from 2028 would add about $1.7 billion of cash payments over 2025–2040.

Climate Decode · Advisory

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Operation-level obligation, the cash share under each usage limit, and price-path scenarios across B.C. OBPS, Alberta TIER and the federal backstop.

Sources

B.C. Carbon Registry (25–27 September 2026); Greenhouse Gas Emission Reporting Regulation and OBPS Program Guidance; federal carbon pricing benchmark (15 May 2026); Province of B.C., First Quarterly Report 2026/27; CleanBC Independent Review (November 2025); Climate Decode B.C. OBPS Market Outlook 2026.

This article is analytical research provided for information only and is not investment advice.