B.C. offset supply is concentrated in three forest projects

Three Great Bear improved forest management projects account for 99% of current B.C. offset issuance. Their crediting periods end in 2034–35.

Extension decisions are therefore the central uncertainty for future supply, and no project has yet been registered under the province’s newer protocols.

B.C. Carbon Registry project report and retirement reports, 25 to 27 September 2026; Climate Decode B.C. OBPS Market Outlook 2026.

The B.C. Carbon Registry lists 23 offset projects, but three Great Bear improved forest management projects dominate issuance. Located in the Great Bear Rainforest and on Haida Gwaii, they generate offsets by keeping forest standing that would otherwise have been harvested.

Together they issue about 2.1 Mt per vintage, or 99% of B.C. offset supply. All other issuers, including the Cheakamus and Quadra Island forest projects, contribute only about 20,000 tonnes a year.

An offset can be used for OBPS compliance in its vintage year and the three following periods. Once that window closes, the unit remains on the registry and can still be sold to other buyers. The provincial government has retired about 0.6 Mt a year since 2016 for carbon-neutral government operations. Voluntary demand reached 0.98 Mt in 2024, and Trans Mountain retired 0.47 Mt in 2025. These buyers typically pay about $10–12 per tonne.

Figures are as reported and cover different periods: the provincial retirement is an annual average since 2016, voluntary demand is the 2024 total and the Trans Mountain figure is for 2025.

The four-period window matters because eligible supply substantially exceeds what the OBPS can use. From 2026, units can settle at most 30% of each operation’s obligation, which caps compliance demand well below annual offset issuance. With about 2.1 Mt of offsets issued each year alongside a growing stream of earned credits, a large share of each vintage is likely to lose OBPS eligibility unused and move to these lower-value buyers.

Each project can issue offsets only during its registered crediting period. The three Great Bear periods end on 31 March 2034, 31 December 2034 and 31 December 2035. Extensions require a new project plan validated under the Forest Carbon Offset Protocol version 2.

The protocol requires the baseline harvest scenario to reflect current legal requirements. Because Great Bear land-use orders already restrict harvesting across much of the project area, an extended project could generate fewer offsets than it does today.

The extension outcome is the largest uncertainty in B.C. offset supply. Full continuation, partial continuation at lower volumes and no extension lead to very different supply paths after 2035, and the Climate Decode outlook tests each of them.

Three projects, three end dates, and one protocol decision behind all of them. We test full, partial and no extension in the B.C. outlook.

B.C. has published new offset protocols for carbon capture and storage, refrigerants, organic waste and forests (version 2), but no project has yet been registered under them.

The only identified pipeline is NorthRiver’s carbon capture project at its Fort Nelson and McMahon gas plants. The project received CleanBC Industry Fund support and could capture about 3.3 Mt over 2028–34. Whether grant-funded tonnes can also be issued and sold as offsets has not yet been established.

•Before 2035. New projects enter a market where eligible supply exceeds compliance demand and units trade at a discount to the compliance price.

•After 2035. Great Bear issuance is likely to decline, reducing competing supply. Projects issuing after the mid-2030s are likely to face a tighter market and stronger prices.

•Vintage management. Offsets lose most of their value once they leave the OBPS eligibility window. Holders have an incentive to sell the oldest eligible vintages first, which buyers can use in negotiations.

Climate Decode · Advisory

Where does your offset position sit when Great Bear rolls off?

Project-level supply, vintage eligibility and unit price scenarios across B.C. OBPS, Alberta TIER and the federal backstop.

Sources

B.C. Carbon Registry project report and retirement reports (25–27 September 2026); Emission Offsets Regulation; Forest Carbon Offset Protocol version 2; B.C. offset protocols for CCS, refrigerants and organic waste; CleanBC Industry Fund awards (August 2025); Climate Decode B.C. OBPS Market Outlook 2026.

This article is analytical research provided for information only and is not investment advice.